Detect Your Ad Creative Fatigue

How do you tell if an ad creative is fatigued?

Check whether CTR is falling while frequency and CPC are rising, then weight the three into a fatigue index. You enter daily CTR, frequency and CPC for 3 to 7 days (5 by default). The tool fits a linear regression to each metric, takes the daily slope, and divides it by that metric's average so the three can be compared as percentages. Only movement in the bad direction counts: CTR going down, frequency going up, CPC going up. Movement the other way is scored as 0.

Fatigue index = (CTR signal x 0.4 + frequency signal x 0.3 + CPC signal x 0.3) x 5, rounded and capped at 100. The weights and the multiplier are the tool's built-in settings.

How do I read the fatigue index?

0 to 25 is normal, 26 to 50 is early fatigue, 51 to 75 is moderate and 76 or above is severe. If CTR is trending down, the tool extends the regression line to find when CTR would fall to half of the first day's value. It only shows that estimated crash day if it lands after your last input day and within 30 days; otherwise it reports no short-term crash risk.

For example, take five days of CTR at 2.0, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7 and 1.6%, frequency at 1.2, 1.4, 1.6, 1.8 and 2.0, and CPC at $0.50, $0.52, $0.54, $0.56 and $0.58. CTR drops 0.1 a day, which over its 1.8 average is about 5.56. Frequency rises 0.2 a day over a 1.6 average, 12.5. CPC rises 0.02 a day over a 0.54 average, about 3.70. The weighted sum is about 7.08, times 5 gives an index of 35, which is early fatigue, and the tool shows an estimated crash on day 10.

When should you replace a creative?

At moderate fatigue, the tool recommends replacing 50% or more of your creatives right away. For early fatigue its built-in advice is to start testing new variants and cut daily budget by 10 to 20%. For severe fatigue it suggests refreshing the whole creative library and, if needed, pausing delivery for 2 to 3 days.

FAQ

How many days of data does the creative fatigue detector need?

At least 3 and at most 7 days, with 5 as the default. CTR, frequency and CPC must be filled in for every day before the analysis runs.

Can a rising CTR offset rising frequency?

No. The tool only scores movement in the bad direction, so a rising CTR or falling frequency or CPC counts as 0 and never cancels out fatigue signals from other metrics.

How accurate is the estimated crash day?

It is a straight-line extension of the CTR regression to the point where CTR hits half of day one's value, shown only if it falls after your input days and within 30 days. Real performance can shift with market and auction changes and may not follow a straight line.

Where do the fatigue index weights come from?

They are the tool's built-in settings: CTR 40%, frequency 30% and CPC 30%, with the sum multiplied by 5. They are not taken from an external study.

Can I analyze several creatives at once?

The tool analyzes one set of daily numbers at a time. Enter data for a single creative or ad, because averaging several creatives together can hide the decline of an individual one.